Case-Shiller Tiers: All Three Tiers Defy Seasonality

Posted by on Wednesday, January 30th, 2013 at 10:23am

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Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $257,962 (up 0.4%)
  • Mid Tier: $257,962 – $412,123
  • Hi Tier: > $412,123 (up 0.3%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through November 2012.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

All three tiers inched up in November, despite the typical seasonal trend that would see prices falling at that time of year. Between October and November, the low tier rose 0.4%, the middle tier was up 0.7%, and the high tier gained 0.5%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through November 2012.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Big gains for the low and middle tier, and a modest increase for the high tier. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of November – Low: +5.1%, Med: +9.4%, Hi: +7.2%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 38.4% off peak for the low tier, 28.3% off peak for the middle tier, and 22.0% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 01.29.2013)


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